Bush gets a bump, nationally and in NH

From now until Election Day, we will take a look at how the presidential race is shaping up nationally and here in New Hampshire, using the RealClear Politics rolling average of national polls and the WMUR/UNH tracking poll in New Hampshire.

National average: Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 1
New Hampshire: Kerry 49, Bush 47, Nader 1

The President boosts his national poll standing close to the magical 50 percent mark, and perhaps not coincidentally, on the same day narrows the Kerry lead in the Granite State to just two points. Kerry was up 50-46 in the WMUR/UNH poll yesterday.

Bush's NH standing has been two points behind his national standing for weeks now, and that does not seem to be changing in the final days of the campaign. Therefore the President still needs to win 51 percent of the national popular vote on Tuesday, in my estimation, in order to have a chance at winning New Hampshire. (And, if he wins 51 percent of the national popular vote, he has no need to carry New Hampshire.)

John Kerry, in contrast, is performing three points better here than nationally -- yet another indication that the Granite State now is a bellwether state with at least a slight Democratic tilt at the presidential level.