Fewer than 90 hours until polls open in New Hampshire.
For pithy observations and live analysis of election returns, follow me on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/#!/Graniteprof
Fewer than 90 hours until polls open in New Hampshire.
For pithy observations and live analysis of election returns, follow me on Twitter at
http://twitter.com/#!/Graniteprof
One candidate for the U. S. Senate won the nomination of his party unopposed. The other barely survived a multicandidate primary, in which she had the support of four of every 10 voters.
But it's the latter candidate, Kelly Ayotte, who has her base unified with three weeks to Election Day, according to the latest UNH poll from my colleague Andrew Smith.
In fact, Ayotte stands at the top of the list, compared to previous statewide Republican candidates in early fall polling from the UNH Survey Center, taken:
At this stage, Ayotte's support among Republicans matches John Sununu's in 2008, when he was running for his second term in the U. S. Senate.
And GOP voters have been much quicker to stand behind the primary winner this time than they were in 2002. Back then, Sununu and Craig Benson, both of whom won difficult primaries, only had the support of three-quarters of GOP voters at this point in the election cycle.
It's just not that easy running for statewide office, even in a small state like New Hampshire.
In my colleague Andrew Smith's latest UNH poll, two-term Congressman Paul Hodes has the support of 72 percent of self-identified Democrats against former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.
To put that number in perspective, I pulled data from previous UNH surveys from:
As the graph indicates, Hodes's base support significantly trails Jeanne Shaheen's support in both her 2002 and 2008 Senate runs. Of course, Shaheen was already a household name by 2002, given that she already had won three terms as governor by then. Hodes, in contrast, has appeared three times on the ballot in the Second Congressional District only, from 2004 through 2008.
Perhaps a more instructive point of comparison is John Lynch, whose base support in early October 2004 is identical to Hodes's support now.
It's worthy of note that, unlike Hodes, Lynch was new to statewide politics in 2004. In fact, he did not even announce his candidacy for governor until the summer of that year -- again, unlike Hodes, who announced his bid for the Senate 20 months ago.
Based on the almost-complete returns from the Associated Press news feed, here is a look at Kelly Ayotte's margin of victory (in number of votes) over Ovide Lamontagne in Tuesday's primary.
The takeaway: Subtract the Connecticut River Valley vote (in Cheshire, Sullivan and Grafton counties), and Lamontagne bests Ayotte.
The question: Do Republican candidates voters view as "extreme right wing" tend to do well in Keene and Hanover?
Berlin, three wards remaining.
Hollis, Milford, New Boston in Hillsborough County (all told, more than 3000 votes in these three towns)
There are others, but I don't see any that are going to produce big gains for Lamontagne.
The AP feed on NH public radio shows Ayotte with a 1,120 vote lead, but does not include Derry, where Ovide was reported by the Union Leader to have won by some 300 votes.
So Ayotte's lead is a little more than 800 votes right now.
Good afternoon.
My estimate is that there are fewer than 10,000 votes left to count in the New Hampshire Republican U. S. Senate race.
Ovide Lamontagne likely has to win more than 55 percent of that remaining vote to pull even with Kelly Ayotte. Correction: Lamontagne has to carry approximately 55 percent.
Good morning.
Kelly Ayotte still leads the New Hampshire Senate GOP primary, but the margin is now 979.
My approximation of remaining votes to be counted, based on AP feed at NH Public Radio: 19,000.
Ovide Lamontagne would have to win about 52-53 percent of remaining votes to catch Ayotte.
I'm calling it a night, folks.
Ayotte still leads by 1,300.
Still some significant towns and cities to report, so too early to call.
But if Ayotte holds the lead, it will be a remarkable victory: a conservative Republican whose margin of victory came from the Connecticut River Valley.
in Belknap, Belmont
in Carroll, Effingham
in Cheshire, Swanzey
Walpole
in Hillsborough --
Brookline
Hollis
Lyndboro
Milford
New Boston
Peterboro
Rockingham
Derry
Windham
Strafford
two cities, DOver and Rochester
Sullivan
city of Claremont
Ayotte repeating Seacoast success among moderate GOPers out in western Hillsborough. SHe wins Amherst, Mont Vernon, Temple, Antrim, Hancock. This is her counterbalance to Ovide's great showing in Greater Manchester.
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