What's striking about the latest UNH head-to-head numbers in the New Hampshire Senate race is not the partisan breakdown -- Kelly Ayotte wins just 5 percent of the Democratic vote; Paul Hodes 8 percent of the Republican vote -- but rather, the degree to which undeclared voters appear up for grabs.
Ayotte actually leads Hodes, 38 percent to 29 percent, among undeclareds. Compare that to two years ago, when Jeanne Shaheen led John Sununu 52-35 among these unaffiliated voters a full year before the election.
Now, it's certainly fair to point out that Shaheen and Sununu were much better-known figures than their 2009 counterparts (never mind potential Ayotte challengers such as Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney).
But that's just the point: An open race in a new president's first term means we have to open up old assumptions about what undeclared voters will do. During the Bush era, we came to count on undeclared voters trending Democratic. During the Obama era, we just don't know. And they are four of every 10 voters.
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