Graniteprof

2008, change or more of the same?

New Hampshire Democrats always will remember 2008 fondly as the year they outnumbered Republicans on the statewide voter registration lists.

Despite achieving that milestone, however, nothing much changed at the top of the ticket for the Democrats.  In other words, Barack Obama's relative advantage in New Hampshire was equal to John Kerry's four years earlier, in terms of partisan voting index (PVI). 

Let's take a look at the Granite State's PVI by congressional district:

First Congressional District 

2000: Al Gore won 46 percent of the vote here, 2 points lower than his national vote share.

2004: Kerry carried 48 percent of the vote, even (+ 0) with his national vote share.

2008: Obama took 53 percent of the vote, again even (+ 0) with his national performance.

Second Congressional District

2000: Gore won 48 percent, even with his national vote share.

2004: Kerry, in contrast, ran wild, walking away with 52 percent of the vote, + 4 better than his national performance.   NH 02 enabled the Massachusetts senator to flip New Hampshire into his column.

2008: Obama actually fell a little short of Kerry here.  He won NH 02 easily with 56 percent of the vote, but that was only + 3 better than his national performance.

In terms of next year's congressional races, it's worth noting that despite a comfortable victory for Carol Shea-Porter in 2008, her district remains a bellwether -- and thus a precarious place, just as her predecessor Jeb Bradley discovered, if a wave develops in favor of the opposing party.

Over in NH 02, however, the eventual Democratic nominee begins the general election race with some protection against a potential wave.  And it's the Second District that gives New Hampshire its Democratic tilt for 2012.

Where will undeclared voters land?

What's striking about the latest UNH head-to-head numbers in the New Hampshire Senate race is not the partisan breakdown -- Kelly Ayotte wins just 5 percent of the Democratic vote; Paul Hodes 8 percent of the Republican vote -- but rather, the degree to which undeclared voters appear up for grabs.

Ayotte actually leads Hodes, 38 percent to 29 percent, among undeclareds.  Compare that to two years ago, when Jeanne Shaheen led John Sununu 52-35 among these unaffiliated voters a full year before the election. 

Now, it's certainly fair to point out that Shaheen and Sununu were much better-known figures than their 2009 counterparts (never mind potential Ayotte challengers such as Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney). 

But that's just the point: An open race in a new president's first term means we have to open up old assumptions about what undeclared voters will do.  During the Bush era, we came to count on undeclared voters trending Democratic.  During the Obama era, we just don't know.   And they are four of every 10 voters.