Graniteprof

Romney under siege, but still the guy to beat

The Boston Globe piles on top of Mitt Romney today -- "Credibility pounded, Romney wrestles uncertainties," reads the front-page headline.  Certainly the ride for the former Massachusetts governor has been anything but smooth the last few weeks.

So why are his "futures" the most expensive among all the Republican candidates on the Iowa Electronic Markets? 

Right now, he is the only Republican candidate with his fate in his own hands. 

Mike Huckabee could be the nominee, but first he has to win Iowa, and even then his path to the nomination is far from certain.

John McCain could be the nominee if he can win New Hampshire and South Carolina.  This becomes especially plausible if Huckabee wins Iowa in three days.  But that's not a certainty at this point, and so his fate is at least partly out of his hands. 

Rudy Giuliani could be the nominee if the field is still scrambled, with no clear front-runner.  That seems to depend on any number of things, but the bottom line is that none of his competitors can win more than two of the following: Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. 

What does Romney need to do to become the nominee?  Win Iowa.  And then win New Hampshire five days later.

Mitt's margin of victory arguably no longer matters, given the strength of his competition in both states.  Romney could win Iowa and New Hampshire by a grand total of three percentage points, combined, and he still becomes the odds-0n favorite for the nomination.  Three percentage points is enough to knock Huckabee and McCain out of serious contention, and it's enough to give Mitt Mo' headed into Michigan and then South Carolina.

So after all the ups and downs, Romney's overall strategy -- win Iowa, win New Hampshire, ride momentum to the nomination -- is still viable.  And unlike the other guys, he does not have to depend on anybody else.  He just has to win.    

For McCain, it's deja vu all over again

Fresh out of grading finals, GRANITEPROF tried twice today to catch John McCain in full town-hall action mode. 

At the Merrimack VFW, the line was headed out the door, so we opted for a Miami dog at the lunch place next door.

The second time was the charm: an early evening show in Londonderry, in the Lions Club hall where Mitt Romney appeared a week earlier.  Romney's crowd was very good (and during the last shopping weekend before Christmas); McCain's turnout looked a little larger.   Again, the line of people stretched out of the hall; the campaign had set up a speaker at the entrance so latecomers could hear.

Back in March, McCain did a town hall in Exeter.   The issues he mentioned in his stump speech nine months ago:

9/11 and the war on terror, Iraq, federal spending, climate change

Tonight:

Pakistan, climate change, federal spending, Iraq

(And, of course, Mo Udall jokes.  And have you heard the one about the drunken sailor?)

Back soon

Due to final grading and holiday celebrating, GRANITEPROF has been on hiatus.  We'll be back in the next few days, blogging full-tilt during the week before the New Hampshire primary.  Buckle up!

Three (make that four) Democrats up on air at WMUR

As of last week, only Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards were up on the air at WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial station.

Bill Richardson, who had spots up from October 22 to December 4, was off the air last week.  (If anyone has seen Richardson ads this week, please send an e-mail.)  p. s. The Page reports a new Richardson ad up on WMUR. 

Here are Edwards's purchases since Thanksgiving:

November 26-December 2: $71,020 for 113 ads
December 3-9: $83,970 for 119 ads

And here are Obama's purchases:

November 27-December 3: $143,865 for 139 ads
December 4-10: $130,890 for 145 ads

Clinton boosts ad buy at WMUR

After averaging $90,000 weekly ad buys at WMUR-TV most of last month, Hillary Clinton's campaign significantly boosted the number of spots it purchased at New Hampshire's only statewide commercial station.

Here are the ad buys post-Thanksgiving:

November 26 - December 2: $122,410 for 141 ads
December 3-16 (a two-week period): $239,395 for 201 ads, a mix of 30-second and 60-second spots.

In addition, the Clinton campaign bought still more time for the week of December 10-16:

$100,700 for 128 ads.

Why the increased air time?  Clinton's additional purchase might be in reaction to a tightening race in New Hampshire, otherwise known as "Plan B."  (See the latest CNN/WMUR poll, conducted by my colleague Andrew Smith at the UNH Survey Center.) 

It also might be a reaction to escalation from Obama's campaign; we do not have their official WMUR numbers for this week as yet.  For most of the fall, the Clinton campaign has been content to let Obama have a greater paid presence on WMUR.  (Alas, we do not know the numbers on Boston television.) 

Aren't Shea-Porter activists already working for Obama?

A follow-up on the Carol Shea-Porter endorsement and what it means for Barack Obama:

Wouldn't it be surprising if most of her ardent, progressive  grass-roots supporters weren't already behind Obama?   Regardless of Shea-Porter's endorsement decision?   Perhaps some might consider John Edwards.   A few might even gravitate toward Bill Richardson or Dennis Kucinich.   But wouldn't one expect that most of those folks have signed up with Barack?

Where will Shea-Porter help Obama?

Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter's endorsement of Barack Obama reminded me of an earlier post that I wrote shortly before Shea-Porter's lopsided upset of Jim Craig in the 2006 Democratic primary.

It raises an interesting set of Primary Day questions to ponder for Obama (and for Shea-Porter and her much-vaunted grass roots network):

(1) Could Obama perform better in Rochester and Somersworth than it appears (based on polling) that he will in most working-class areas?   Dover also presents an interesting battlefield. 

(2) If a "change" candidate like Obama cannot carry the Durham-Portsmouth area, he almost certainly will not win the New Hampshire primary.

(3) Key battlegrounds: elite Seacoast towns like Rye, and further inland (pace Greenberg), Exeter.

***

Last time we discussed one part of the NH 01 equation that plays out tomorrow: How large will Manchester turn out for its hometown guy, State Rep. Jim Craig?

The second part of the equation: How big is Carol Shea-Porter's backyard?

Answer: Could be big enough to outweigh the Queen City, depending on well Shea-Porter and her grass-roots activists turn out her vote. That, in turn, depends on whether this primary has become a contest that splits Democrats along ideological lines.  If a Democrat from Hampton identifies with Shea-Porter, the Rochester activist, as the articulate liberal who will take the fight to Jeb Bradley this fall, then tomorrow night may be the best political story New Hampshire has seen this quiet election season. 

So let's take a look at the possible dimensions of Shea-Porter's backyard in Strafford (and possibly Rockingham) counties, from smallest possible to largest possible.  If Shea-Porter's backyard is purely geographical, it's only worth about 2,000 votes.  But if she has successfully melded geography and ideology, her backyard grows to roughly 10,000 votes, or nearly twice the Manchester vote.

1.  Rochester and Somersworth
Total vote in 2004 NH 01 Democratic congressional primary: 1,780.   
(Rochester: 1,280, Somersworth: 500; all numbers rounded)

This is the core of Shea-Porter's vote, based simply on geography and name recognition.   If this is as big as her backyard gets, Craig wins in a walk.

2.  Dover and Rollinsford
Total vote in September 2004 congressional primary: 1,550.
Dover: 1,400, Rollinsford: 150

Dover strikes me as a good bellwether tomorrow night.  While the geography favors Shea-Porter, the city is significantly more working-class than the elite towns along the Seacoast.  If Jim Craig's party establishment / labor backing has real teeth, we should see them in places like Dover.   If Shea-Porter's grass-roots operation is not just Astroturf, we should see signs of that here as well.

3.  Durham and surrounding towns
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,350
Durham: 580, New Market: 420, Lee: 240, Madbury: 110

Home of the extremely educated liberal vote.  (Also see: Hanover, Dartmouth College.)   
If there's a place where Shea-Porter's anti-war stance should pay big dividends (and where Craig will be punished for his temporizing on Iraq), it's here.

4.  Portsmouth and its environs
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,710
Portsmouth: 1,560, New Castle: 110, Newington, 40

Portsmouth Herald's endorsement of Shea-Porter (and excoriation of Craig) obviously should pay off big here, if anywhere. 

5.  Down the Seacoast
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,540
Hampton, 590; Rye, 400; North Hampton, 220; Greenland, 140; Seabrook, 120; Hampton Falls, 70.

Before he drove off the Spaulding Turnpike under mysterious circumstances, Gary Dodds of Rye would have been expected to grab a healthy portion of this vote.  The question tomorrow will be: if Dodds's friends and neighbors don't go to the polls for him, whom are they going to support?  This area will be another test of Shea-Porter's and Craig's campaign operations to GOTV in an area geographically neutral to both. 

It's worth noting, though, that in the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary, insurgent candidate Mark Fernald did very well in these towns against Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  These results may have been a result of anger over property taxes and education funding, but the Fernald performance seems the best proxy we have for guesstimating liberal strongholds in Democratic state primaries.   (In 2002, Fernald faced off against Beverly Hollingworth, a Rockingham County resident, so it is not as reliable a proxy in my view.)

6.  Exeter and nearby towns
September 2004 primary turnout: 1,160
Exeter: 750, Stratham:210, Kensington: 80, Newfields: 80, South Hampton: 40

Exeter is the most valuable prize of all the Seacoast towns, with 750 votes cast.  Fernald carried it in 2000, as well as Kensington and South Hampton.

All told, about 9,100 voters cast primary ballots two years ago in these 22 cities and towns.  The turnout  this time, if Secretary of State Bill Gardner's projections are correct, may be closer to 10,000.

To match the 60 percent (or 4,000 votes) Craig might be expected to carry out of Manchester, Shea-Porter thus needs to carry about 40 percent of the vote out of the Seacoast to match Craig.  Obviously her goal will be to exceed 40 percent of the vote, and carry a lead into the "terra incognita" of this race: interior Rockingham County, and the northern counties of Belknap and Carroll. 

***

Last time we discussed one part of the NH 01 equation that plays out tomorrow: How large will Manchester turn out for its hometown guy, State Rep. Jim Craig?

The second part of the equation: How big is Carol Shea-Porter's backyard?

Answer: Could be big enough to outweigh the Queen City, depending on well Shea-Porter and her grass-roots activists turn out her vote. That, in turn, depends on whether this primary has become a contest that splits Democrats along ideological lines.  If a Democrat from Hampton identifies with Shea-Porter, the Rochester activist, as the articulate liberal who will take the fight to Jeb Bradley this fall, then tomorrow night may be the best political story New Hampshire has seen this quiet election season. 

So let's take a look at the possible dimensions of Shea-Porter's backyard in Strafford (and possibly Rockingham) counties, from smallest possible to largest possible.  If Shea-Porter's backyard is purely geographical, it's only worth about 2,000 votes.  But if she has successfully melded geography and ideology, her backyard grows to roughly 10,000 votes, or nearly twice the Manchester vote.

1.  Rochester and Somersworth
Total vote in 2004 NH 01 Democratic congressional primary: 1,780.   
(Rochester: 1,280, Somersworth: 500; all numbers rounded)

This is the core of Shea-Porter's vote, based simply on geography and name recognition.   If this is as big as her backyard gets, Craig wins in a walk.

2.  Dover and Rollinsford
Total vote in September 2004 congressional primary: 1,550.
Dover: 1,400, Rollinsford: 150

Dover strikes me as a good bellwether tomorrow night.  While the geography favors Shea-Porter, the city is significantly more working-class than the elite towns along the Seacoast.  If Jim Craig's party establishment / labor backing has real teeth, we should see them in places like Dover.   If Shea-Porter's grass-roots operation is not just Astroturf, we should see signs of that here as well.

3.  Durham and surrounding towns
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,350
Durham: 580, New Market: 420, Lee: 240, Madbury: 110

Home of the extremely educated liberal vote.  (Also see: Hanover, Dartmouth College.)   
If there's a place where Shea-Porter's anti-war stance should pay big dividends (and where Craig will be punished for his temporizing on Iraq), it's here.

4.  Portsmouth and its environs
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,710
Portsmouth: 1,560, New Castle: 110, Newington, 40

Portsmouth Herald's endorsement of Shea-Porter (and excoriation of Craig) obviously should pay off big here, if anywhere. 

5.  Down the Seacoast
Total vote in September 2004 primary: 1,540
Hampton, 590; Rye, 400; North Hampton, 220; Greenland, 140; Seabrook, 120; Hampton Falls, 70.

Before he drove off the Spaulding Turnpike under mysterious circumstances, Gary Dodds of Rye would have been expected to grab a healthy portion of this vote.  The question tomorrow will be: if Dodds's friends and neighbors don't go to the polls for him, whom are they going to support?  This area will be another test of Shea-Porter's and Craig's campaign operations to GOTV in an area geographically neutral to both. 

It's worth noting, though, that in the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary, insurgent candidate Mark Fernald did very well in these towns against Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  These results may have been a result of anger over property taxes and education funding, but the Fernald performance seems the best proxy we have for guesstimating liberal strongholds in Democratic state primaries.   (In 2002, Fernald faced off against Beverly Hollingworth, a Rockingham County resident, so it is not as reliable a proxy in my view.)

6.  Exeter and nearby towns
September 2004 primary turnout: 1,160
Exeter: 750, Stratham:210, Kensington: 80, Newfields: 80, South Hampton: 40

Exeter is the most valuable prize of all the Seacoast towns, with 750 votes cast.  Fernald carried it in 2000, as well as Kensington and South Hampton.

All told, about 9,100 voters cast primary ballots two years ago in these 22 cities and towns.  The turnout  this time, if Secretary of State Bill Gardner's projections are correct, may be closer to 10,000.

To match the 60 percent (or 4,000 votes) Craig might be expected to carry out of Manchester, Shea-Porter thus needs to carry about 40 percent of the vote out of the Seacoast to match Craig.  Obviously her goal will be to exceed 40 percent of the vote, and carry a lead into the "terra incognita" of this race: interior Rockingham County, and the northern counties of Belknap and Carroll. 

McCain spending $90K weekly on WMUR

For the last two weeks, John McCain's campaign has spent about $90,000 weekly on WMUR-TV for a mix of 30-second and 60-second spots:

November 26 - December 2: $91,065

December 3-10: $86,880

On WMUR, McCain is being outspent by Rudy Giuliani almost 2-1.
It's worth noting, though, that only one of these candidates is on the upswing in New Hampshire.

Giuliani weekly ad buys approach $175,000 on WMUR

While not at Mitt Romney's level, Rudy Giuliani's campaign is also writing six-figure checks to WMUR on a weekly basis:

November 28 - December 4: $148,760 for 168 thirty-second spots.

December 5-11: $173,775 for 189 thirty-second spots. 

Ron Paul keeps WMUR ad buys on low simmer

Last month the Ron Paul campaign stated that it had bought $1.1 million in television advertising time for the remainder of the campaign in New Hampshire.

To date, the Paul campaign has spent very little of that TV ad budget on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station.

From October 29-November 25, the Paul campaign spent $55,800, or about $14,000 per week on average. 

In the last two weeks (November 26-December 10), they have spent $44,100 there for 49 spots.  That's roughly three or four ads a day. 

All told, the Paul campaign has spent about $100,000 at WMUR over the last six weeks.  Four weeks remain in the New Hampshire primary campaign.

Loyal and devoted readers: Has anyone seen any Paul ads on other stations besides WMUR?

Kelly, a Ron Paul supporter, reports that she has seen Paul ads on cable.