Graniteprof

Romney: $2.4 million spent at WMUR-TV in 2007

Mitt Romney's dominance of the WMUR airwaves surely will lessen a bit in the next six weeks (especially with Rudy up and running).   But it's worth pointing out how much Romney has monopolized the eyeballs of GOP voters since he went on the air on New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station February 20.

Over the last nine months, the Romney campaign has spent $2.4 million on ads at WMUR ($2,401,360, to be exact).

That's about 75 percent of all Republican presidential ad buys on that station during this calendar year.

In other words, Mitt has spent three dollars in ads for every one dollar spent by the rest of the field, all year long.

So, if Mike Haddad winds up with a spankin' new Doppler system sometime in 2008, they'll likely name it (what else?) "The Radar that Mitt Built."

Total ad buys on WMUR-TV near $7M

Cumulative ad buys on WMUR-TV by presidential candidates, from the beginning of the calendar year through Thanksgiving week:

Democratic presidential candidates: $3,479,140

Republican presidential candidates: $3,178,770

Correction on the GOP numbers: Graniteprof double-counted one Ron Paul buy, so the cumulative number actually is $3,160,170.

Obama spends most on WMUR ad buys

As one might expect from a well-funded challenger aiming to overtake the frontrunner, Barack Obama led all Democrats in ad spending on WMUR-TV (New Hampshire's only statewide television station)
through the Thanksgiving holidays.

From October 30 through November 26, Obama spent just over half a million dollars ($505,595, to be exact, Cosmo) on 502 ads.   Some of these were 30-second spots, others one minute in length.  (The senator from Illinois likes the 60-second ads.)

Put another way, Obama has spent about $125,000 a week throughout this month to air 120-135 ads, or about 18 or 19 a day.  That's a large buy by Democratic standards -- but not by Mitt Romney's standards (see below post). 

McCain's pre-Thanksgiving ad buys in New Hampshire

Some Thanksgiving leftovers:

Here are John McCain's November ad buys on WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide station, before the holidays:

October 29 to November 11: $131,650 for 152 thirty-second ads.

November 12-18: $101,825 for 118 spots.

November 19-25 (Thanksgiving week): $41,000 for 53 ads.

Rudy's first ad buy $145K on WMUR-TV

Rudy Giuliani's long-awaited New Hampshire ad buy was a sizable one on WMUR-TV:

November 15-20 / $144,995 for 52 one-minute ads and 67 thirty-second ads.

Romney: 30 ads a day, every day, on WMUR

November has been a good month for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, as the latest polls indicate.  After falling as low as 23 percent in late September, Romney has polled over 30 percent in the last five public Granite State polls.

It's worth pointing out how much the Romney campaign is spending here in order to maintain and expand that lead.   

During October, Romney regularly spent more than $100,000 a week on ad buys at WMUR-TV, New Hampshire's only statewide commercial television station. 

This month, Romney upped the ante yet again.  His campaign is now spending more than $200,00o a week on WMUR:

October 31 - November 6: $219,865 for 191 ads

November 7-13: $228,500 / 220 ads

November 14-20: $227,475 / 204 ads

That's Romney round-the-clock, at the rate of more than one ad an hour, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. 

There's one on right now, as a matter of fact.

Ron Paul ad buys stay small on New Hampshire TV

Where is Ron Paul spending that $8.8 million he has raised this quarter?  Not on WMUR-TV, the only statewide television station in New Hampshire.   Thus far the Paul campaign's ad buy there has been rather meager. 

From October 29 (when he went up on the air) through November 18, Paul spent $55,800 at WMUR to air 66 thirty-second ads over those three weeks.  That's about a third as many as Mitt Romney has put up in a single week this month on WMUR.

Little love for Obama among New Hampshire's working class

While Hillary Clinton's support has dropped among the "Volvo Democrats" (as Ron Brownstein would call them), she remains miles ahead of Barack Obama among working-class members of the party. 

In the latest Boston Globe / University of New Hampshire poll, Clinton leads Obama among likely voters with a high school education or less by a six-to-one margin.  A majority (54 percent) of these voters support Hillary; just 9 percent support Obama.  The senator from Illinois actually finishes fourth in this category, not only behind Clinton and John Edwards (13 percent), but also New Mexico governor Bill Richardson (13 percent).

Similarly, among likely voters who make less than $60,000 a year, Obama places third, behind Clinton and Edwards.  Obama only comes within five points of Clinton among those making $100,000 a year or more.

Fortunately for Obama, there are a good number of Volvo-driving Democrats up here.  But their numbers drop significantly once the campaigns move onto other states, as has been well noted in past elections. 

p.s.  Over at the Union Leader, Drew Cline says Obama needs some NASCAR action.

Hillary and college-educated Democrats in New Hampshire, con't

Pollster.com has an excellent post on signs of erosion in Hillary Clinton's support among college-educated Democrats, in both the Boston Globe / University of New Hampshire and Marist College polls.

In the Boston Globe / UNH poll, respondents were asked a series of questions about the candidates and their characteristics. 

College graduates and those with a post-graduate education ranked Clinton first in the following categories:

Strongest leader
37 percent of college graduates and 40 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first.
Barack Obama finished second, with 22 percent of college grads and 17 percent of post-graduates.

Most experience
43 percent of college graduates and 46 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first.
In second place was Bill Richardson with 15 percent of college graduates and 19 percent of post-graduates.

Best chance of beating the Republican candidate
40 percent of college graduates and 48 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first.
Obama finished second, with 25 percent of college grads and 16 percent of post-graduates.

College graduates and post-graduates ranked Clinton below first place in the following categories:

Most trustworthy
14 percent of college graduates and 13 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first in this category.  She finished third in this category, behind Obama and Edwards.

Can bring needed change to the United States
24 percent of college grads and 24 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first.   She finished second in this category, behind Obama.

Has shown best judgment
19 percent of college grads and 21 percent of post-graduates ranked Clinton first.  She finished second in this category, behind Obama.

Hillary and college-educated women in New Hampshire

When it comes to understanding primary voter demographics, Ron Brownstein is always mandatory reading.  (His work on the Gore-Bradley race in 2000 was a big influence on my thinking, and helped to inspire my book on the New Hampshire primary.) 

Brownstein's recent National Journal article, on how Hillary Clinton is now attracting the support of college-educated women, gets to the heart of the matter in New Hampshire.

If Clinton can keep those voters with her over the next two months, then the Granite State might be an effective firewall in case she slips in Iowa.

But if educated, professional women, among the last to get on the Clinton bandwagon, are the first to get off the bus in case of trouble, then the firewall will offer little protection in case of an Iowa stumble.

To put it another way: What's the gut reaction among those voters to the wave of attacks on Clinton, starting with the Philadelphia debates?   Is the modal response Eleanor Smeal's  or  Kate Michelman's?

Go ask  a college-educated woman in a two-income family in Merrimack, Bedford, Amherst, Windham, or Rye.