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Here's a look back at my colleague Andrew Smith's polling of the Sununu-Shaheen race in 2002. In that election cycle, Jeanne Shaheen never achieved 50 percent support in a UNH poll.
In the latest UNH poll, Shaheen already has cracked the 50 percent ceiling, enjoying 54 percent support. This has nervous Republicans wringing their hands.
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's announcement that she will take on a rematch against Senator John Sununu prompted me to pull this chestnut out of the Google cache. Five years change everything.
Now at 5 percent in New Hampshire, according to the latest Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll.
That's one point out of fifth place (held by Mike Huckabee with 6 percent). Paul now holds a greater share of the primary vote than Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, combined.
(Graniteprof's conscience: How come you never show some love to Joe Biden? He's at 3 percent! )
What can I say? My two-month-old Ron Paul post still draws traffic.
(OK, now you're just being a suck-up.)
Let's review the facts:
(1) Rudy Giuliani has not spent a dime on television advertisements in New Hampshire. As of June, Mitt Romney had run almost 800.
(2) Consensus CW tells us that Romney's Granite State ground organization got to work much harder, much earlier than Giuliani's.
(3) And New Hampshire, of course, is Romney's backyard. He has done 20 events here since July 31, and 12 in September. Rudy has done 12 events here since the end of July, and just five in August and September, combined. A Giuliani victory on Primary Day would be the equivalent of the Yankees sweeping a series in Fenway during the middle of a pennant race.
So why are (1) + (2) + (3) adding up to such a slim lead for the former Massachusetts governor? Today's Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg poll is the second consecutive survey that puts Rudy within five points of Romney.
OK, let's just pick up like I did not drop the ball for a month --
Statewide, Republicans have a net gain of 2,849 new voters on the registration lists since November 2002 (this overall gain includes losses in registered voters as well as additions).
Most of that slight increase occurred in Rockingham County, which added 2,549 new Republicans during that period.
No other county in New Hampshire had a net gain of 1,000 Republicans during that four-year period.
