Graniteprof

Will NH-02 become Obamaland?

The importance of endorsements in the New Hampshire primary is chronically overrated. 

But as far as endorsements go, NH-02 Congressman Paul Hodes's announcement of support for Barack Obama is a big catch.  That's because the Second District, most of which lies far beyond the state's media-heavy southern tier, is crucial to an insurgent candidate's potential to upset a frontrunner in the Granite State.   

When everything was crashing down around Howard Dean in January 2004, the western counties of the Second District (Cheshire, which includes the city of Keene; Sullivan; and Grafton, home of Dartmouth College) held firm for him.   

One might argue that Dean enjoyed the "boy next door" advantage, given that he governed the neighboring state of Vermont.  But former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley nearly pulled off an upset of Al Gore in 2000, thanks to his big victories in areas such as Hanover and the prosperous towns of Cheshire and western Hillsborough counties.

Indeed, one can go back 35 years to find that exactly the same areas gave George McGovern a big push against Ed Muskie in 1972.  In that primary, McGovern carried Hanover and adjacent towns with 77 percent of the vote.  (Warning: Shameless plug ahead! For more swell statistics, see here.)

In short, lots and lots of Democrats in NH 02 dig the Change Candidate.   If Obama has made his case that he is It, then he'll carry the areas mentioned above by decisive margins.   And if Hillary Clinton has neutralized Obama's claim, then she will hold her own on the Vermont border (and very likely carry the whole state).

Thus far (and of course, it's still crazy early, though not as early as it once was), according to polling by my colleague Andy Smith, Clinton is doing just that.   Here are the latest numbers from NH 02:

Clinton: 33 percent
Obama: 29
Richardson: 15

These numbers have barely budged from June:

Clinton: 32 percent
Obama: 27
Richardson: 12

Questions for discussion: Do NH 02 voters see Richardson as a candidate for change?  Is he eating Obama's lunch?

Clinton leads among New Hampshire's anti-war Democrats

A new ABC News-Washington Post national poll shows Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead among the most fervently anti-war Democrats of her party.  Clinton enjoys a 22 percent lead (51-29) over Barack Obama among those who wish for a complete, immediate withdrawal of U. S. forces from Iraq.

Normally, we expect New Hampshire primary voters to be leading indicators of national trends, inasmuch as they are exposed to the campaigns so much more intensely than voters elsewhere.  But the latest CNN/WMUR NH Primary Poll, conducted by my UNH colleague Andrew Smith, shows exactly the same results: anti-war Democrats in the Granite State support Clinton in increasing numbers.

Back in April, Clinton held a narrow lead here among those who opposed the war in Iraq:

HRC 26, Obama 21, Edwards 20

Now, Clinton has increased her lead among those who oppose the war:

Among those who strongly oppose the war: HRC 39, Obama 27, Richardson 12, Edwards 5.

Obviously Iraq is at the top of Democratic voters' issue agendas.  But so far it seems to be of little importance to them when it comes to choosing one Democratic candidate over another. 

Or, to put it another way, they see little difference among the top candidates when it comes to Iraq. 

Or, they are thinking about Iraq prospectively, not retrospectively.  In other words, they are more concerned about what their nominee will do in Iraq if elected, not whether the nominee voted for authorizing the use of force back in 2002. 

Perhaps all this will change if one of Clinton's challengers becomes more pointed in his criticism.  But at this point, anti-war Democrats in New Hampshire are not as large a building block for a classic Granite State insurgency movement as someone like Obama or Edwards might have hoped.

McCain's New Hampshire agenda: taxes, reform, environment

Via Jonathan Martin at The Politico, John McCain's campaign lays out its issue agenda for New Hampshire in a strategy memo.   The top issues he will stress:

• Government reform
• Low taxes
• Increasing energy independence, including a "cap and trade" market-based system to reduce greenhouse gases.

Can McCain win back some of his support among New Hampshire's undeclared voters?  New Hampshire Public Radio's Jon Greenberg takes on this question in his continuing series on the voters of Exeter. 

New Hampshire Republican primary voters trend conservative

Will New Hampshire voters participating in the Republican presidential primary be significantly more conservative than in 2000?  Current conventional wisdom says they will because most undeclared voters intend to participate in the Democratic primary next year, according to survey data.

So far, according to the CNN /WMUR 2008 NH Primary Poll (conducted by my colleague Andrew Smith), the CW is correct.  In three of four surveys conducted this year, the percentage of self-declared conservatives has been higher than the percentage found in the 2000 Republican primary exit poll:

2000 exit poll: 51 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters report they are conservative.

February 2007 CNN/WMUR poll: 56 percent conservative.
April 2007: 48 percent
June 2007: 58 percent
July 2007: 58 percent

Remember, though, it's still New Hampshire.

In Iowa, for instance, 73 percent of Republican caucus-goers described themselves as conservative back in 2000.   And in South Carolina, 61 percent said they were conservative (which somehow is not as high a number as I would have guessed).

Don't look back, Ron Paul might be gaining on you

Just wondering: Now that Texas congressman Ron Paul has more than $2 million in the bank (that's double what Brownback, Huckabee and Tommy Thompson have on hand, combined) and sits in a six-way tie for fifth in New Hampshire, can we start wondering (just for fun) about what he might do in the libertarian Granite State if he spends a lot of his swell money here?

I'm not saying that the congressman is going to take down Rudy or Romney.  But what's stopping him from finishing at the top of the second tier?

McCain's New Hampshire base stays the same seven years later

Happy Fourth!

Politico reports that John McCain's presidential campaign "is clinging to life," chiefly because "there is scant evidence that nearly seven years of effort since his failed 2000 bid to cultivate and reassure" the party's conservative activist base "have paid any dividends."

A look at the CNN/WMUR 2008 NH Primary Polls, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, tends to confirm McCain's lack of progress among conservative Republicans, even in New Hampshire. 

Indeed, what's striking about professed McCain voters in New Hampshire nowadays is how closely they resemble the Arizona senator's Granite State support in 2000.

According to 2000 New Hampshire primary exit poll data, McCain won 67 percent of the vote of self-described liberals, 60 percent of moderates, and 37 percent of conservatives.

So far in 2007, the composition of McCain's base in New Hampshire looks just the same: heavily dependent on liberal and moderate Republicans and independents.

In the February 2007 poll from UNH, 41 percent of moderates and liberals supported McCain, versus just 20 percent of conservatives.

April 2007 was virtually identical: 37 percent of moderates and liberals said they would vote for McCain, versus 22 percent of conservatives.

June 2007: McCain's support drops among both groups, but the ratio stays roughly the same: 28 percent of moderates and liberals say they will vote for McCain, versus 15 percent of conservatives.