Graniteprof

NH Democrats pick up where they left off

Democrat David Scannell, formerly an assistant to Manchester Mayor Bob Baines, won yesterday's special election for state representative in the city's Ward 2 with 58 percent of the vote. 

It's getting tough to remember a time when New Hampshire Republicans actually won a special election to the House.  Evan Carlson of the New Hampshire Democratic Party says the last time his party lost a special election was for a seat in Claremont, back in February 2005.

State legislature race a preview of 2008 GOP talking points?

Voters (a few, anyway) are headed to the polls today in Manchester's Ward 2, which is replacing one of its state representatives.

The Republican candidate, Michael McGrath, distributed a campaign "questionnaire" to voters.  Here are some of the highlights:

• After mentioning his door-to-door efforts, McGrath states, "Many of you have spoken of the foolish agenda that the tax-and-spend crowd in Concord has pursued this last year." 
• He adds in the next paragraph, "From fines on released balloons, to civil unions, to increased taxes in the amount of $132 per every man, woman and child in New Hampshire to the recently passed tax on milk -- everyone seems to be disappointed with the Concord crowd."
• McGrath's questionnaire includes questions on the following:
  • Concord's approval of a state budget "in excess of $10 billion for the first time in history"
  • Concord's approval of $12 million for LCHIP, while refusing to fund the "disabilities waiting list"
  • Governor John Lynch's constitutional amendment to support education.  Twice in the mailer, McGrath notes that the costs of this amendment to taxpayers are not yet known.
  • Need for a sales or income tax to help fund public education.
  • Mandatory jail sentences for second-time drunk driving offenders.
  • Concord is considering the amendment of truth-in-sentencing laws to allow convicts to reduce their sentences.
  • Do you agree with the Legislature's decision to turn aside parental notification for minor daughters seeking an abortion?

Shea-Porter and Blue Hampshire backlash

Just wondering: How many Democrats on the Seacoast were surprised this morning to hear that their congresswoman might vote today to fund the Iraq war without a deadline for U. S. troop withdrawals?

After noting Congressman Paul Hodes's firm opposition to the supplemental Iraq war funding bill, John DiStaso reports the following in today's Union Leader:

She admitted she is "in agony" over whether to vote for the supplemental funding bill, first saying, "I will not give the President a blank check for four months." But she then said she had not decided to vote against it.

I bet there's a lot of that agony going around this morning among progressive Democrats.  Check out Elwood's fiery comments on Blue Hampshire ("Senators and Congressmen who vote for this bill will have blood on their hands."), or the friendly reminder from nhcollegedem of the contract Shea-Porter made with the progressive wing of the party last year.  ("If you keep fighting the Iraq War, we'll keep supporting you.")

According to polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, the people who know and like Shea-Porter the best are liberals and Seacoast residents.  Which raises an interesting question: what happens to a first-term congresswoman in a marginal district if she casts a vote that angers the people who know her best?

Update: Shea-Porter announced later today she would vote against the bill.

 

Shameless plug

My book on the New Hampshire primary, Stormy Weather, is now up on Google Books.
Maybe this means Google will send me stock options someday soon?

Or you can just buy it from Amazon for $2.92, not including postage and handling. 
Imagine!  Hillary could buy half a million copies and not blink an eye!

Of those who actually bought the book and sat down and read it, a few have asked, "Well, this is just swell, but what about more on the Republicans?"  We hope to offer some content on GRANITEPROF  in upcoming months.

All of which will be completely free, or about three dollars less than the book will cost you on Amazon, not including postage and handling.

Hillary and Royal: it's not just about gender

The defeat of Socialist Segolene Royal in Sunday's French presidential elections got some play on the inside pages of the Washington Post, for what it could possibly mean for Hillary Clinton's candidacy:

There was a time when advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) looked abroad for proof that women can get elected to a top leadership role in the modern world: Margaret Thatcher, the former British prime minister; Angela Merkel, the German chancellor; and Michelle Bachelet, the president of Chile.

But as presidential candidate Ségolène Royal was defeated by a conservative man who had been France's chief law enforcement officer, the Clinton campaign was quick to dismiss comparisons between their candidate and her Socialist counterpart across the Atlantic.

Call GRANITEPROF an old stick-in-the-mud, but Sunday's results seemed as much about class as gender.   Check out this analysis from Reuters:

But political analysts said Royal might have appeared aloof for some women from more modest backgrounds.

"There is a gap between her image, an image of a woman who belongs to the elite, who has done the ENA (elite school for civil servants), who has the look of women having acquired a high level of education," said sociologist Mariette Sineau.

"She appears very different to working-class women," Sineau added, noting that Royal had visited poorly paid women working as supermarket cashiers only towards the end of her campaign.

Somehow I doubt Clinton will make such an oversight.   So far in New Hampshire polling, she enjoys +56  net favorability among voters with a high school education or less, 16 points better than her overall favorability.

P. S.  DiNardo knows the score.