Obama mania, the long view

In case you haven't heard, the junior senator from Illinois will appear before a sold-out party for New Hampshire Democratic activists this weekend. 

Before Obamamania descends, here are two questions to ponder:

1)  Will it last?   One of the smartest things activists told me during the interviews I did for my book on the primary was this: Never underestimate the power of the new in New Hampshire.   Much more than any ideological bias: Granite State activists tend to favor the fresh face over the familiar.   

2)  Is it enough to stop Hillary?  Even if the answer to (1) turns out to be YES -- and it certainly could -- will it be enough to stop Hillary Clinton?  That's a much tougher question for Obama, because another way to put the query is this: When was the last time a liberal candidate beat a centrist frontrunner in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary?  (I'm assuming here that Obama would run to Hillary's left; doubtful that there are many votes to her right.)

In 2004, Howard Dean certainly made claims to represent the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party."  He finished second to John Kerry, all but ending his candidacy.

In 2000, Bill Bradley played the anti-establishment insurgent.  He could not stop Al Gore in New Hampshire (though he came closer than Dean), and New Hampshire all but ended his candidacy.

One might argue that Paul Tsongas was the last time a liberal defeated a centrist, but Tsongas was quite conservative on economic issues in 1992, arguably much more so than Bill Clinton.

Back in 1988, Michael Dukakis certainly was liberal on some issues, but that contest does not seem to fit the "liberal insurgent vs. centrist frontrunner" mold very well.  Richard Gephardt was a candidate for the working-class Democrat; Jesse Jackson was not much of a factor here.

One could make a case that Gary Hart's insurgent candidacy in 1984 was the last time a liberal beat a centrist frontrunner in New Hampshire.  Even that race, though, does not fit very comfortably.  In some ways, Mondale was the last of the New Deal liberal Democratic candidates, while Hart presented a more moderate, centrist, "New Democrat" alternative.

Back to 1980.  Ted Kennedy fails to defeat President Jimmy Carter.

Back to 1976.  Carter, a Southern moderate Democrat, carries New Hampshire over liberals such as Mo Udall.

Back to 1972.  George McGovern, clearly a liberal insurgent, finishes second to centrist Ed Muskie.  Of course, one could argue that McGovern exceeded expectations in New Hampshire, and gained more momentum than Muskie.

Back to 1968.  Gene McCarthy finishes a fairly close second to President Lyndon Johnson.  This race belongs in the same category as 1972, as a contest that gave momentum to the loser and signaled the end for the "winner."

What's the point? 

On the one hand, New Hampshire activists love (I mean, LOVE) the new new thing in politics. 

On primary day, however, a liberal has not defeated a centrist here for quite a long time -- one might argue that a liberal never has done so in the modern era of presidential nominations that began in 1972.  And in recent years, New Hampshire has been the place where liberal insurgent candidacies find their final resting place.