NH on election eve, then and now

As we sit and wonder what Election Day will bring, let's take a look at the results of the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Election Tracking Poll. What strikes me here is how constant the numbers have been since the tracking began Oct. 25-27:

Among registered Democrats, Kerry began with an 88 percent- 10 percent lead. Last day of poll: Kerry 90-10.

Among registered Republicans, Bush began with a 89 percent - 11 percent lead. Last day: Bush 90-9.

Among undeclareds: Kerry began with a 57 percent - 34 percent lead. Last day: Kerry 59-37.

Now, let's compare these numbers with the final WMUR / Eagle-Tribune / UNH poll before the 2000 election.

Overall, Bush led Gore 45-39, with 5 percent for Nader and 6 percent undecided.
Gore led among registered Democrats, 79-11. Five percent said they would vote for Nader. Three percent undecided.
Among undeclareds, Gore led 40-35. Nine percent said they would vote for Nader. Nine percent undecided.
Among Republicans, Bush led 81-9. Two percent said they would vote for Nader. Four percent undecided.

The number that screams out here, especially when compared to 2000, is undeclareds' solid support for Kerry. It appears that he will win three out of five votes among the largest voter group in New Hampshire.

A Democrat hitting 60 percent among New Hampshire undeclareds is a rare thing. Combine that with strong Democratic voter registation numbers, anemic Republican voter registration, and the scenario is present for an event we have not seen since LBJ in '64: a Democrat winning a majority of the vote in the Granite State.

Comments

[marianne19]

We are calm,confident and organized up here. I'll be working the polls today and will report back this afternoon. Not much fear of surpression in NH (GOP'ers mostly moderate folk)so it's a get-out-the-vote effort. We are also one of the few states allowing same-day registration. The turnout is always one of the highest in percent of eligible voters, probably due to interest that starts with the primary and this year has hardly let up. Have a great day everyone.

[Jeff]

I'll be door-to-door in NH today hope to see some of you there!

[paul]

We are expecting attempts to create trouble here in Hanover, NH regarding the student vote. We have several lawyers observing events inside and outside the poll (yes, singular, we are a small town). The town is also prepared, I understand, because of concerns over repeating the 2002 experience, where lines became much longer than usual due to Republican challenges of students. You'd really rather not be standing around outside for several hours in early November up here.

I also have read that similar problems are expected in Keene, Plymouth and Durham, all towns with large student populations.

[infoshaman]

My son (Amherst freshman) has been working the last 6 weeks for ACT & Kerry in NH. Other than one house literally "releasing the hounds" on him, he has had a great time. He'll be in Keene today.

Keep those of us in the rest of the country informed. We surely do appreciate the news!